Viewing archive of Saturday, 16 October 2010

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Oct 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 1112 (S18W28) produced an impulsive M2.9/1N flare at 16/1912Z. Associated with this event were weak, discrete radio emissions ranging from 245MHz - 15,400MHz including a 140sfu Tenflare observed at 16/1916Z. In addition, a Type II radio sweep, with an estimated shock velocity of 929km/s was observed with this event. During the period, Region 1112 grew both in spot count and area and developed beta-gamma magnetic characteristics. The remainder of the disk and limb remained unchanged.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels, with a chance for additional M-class events from Region 1112 all three days of the period (17 - 19 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet at all latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominately quiet levels for days one and two (17 - 18 October). By day three (19 October), unsettled to active levels, with isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes, are expected. The increase in activity is due to a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream coupled with possible glancing blow effects from the 14 October CME.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Oct to 19 Oct
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Oct 087
  Predicted   17 Oct-19 Oct  088/088/088
  90 Day Mean        16 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct  003/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Oct  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct  005/005-005/005-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct to 19 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%30%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%35%
Minor storm01%01%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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