Viewing archive of Thursday, 14 October 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Oct 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity remained at very low levels. Regions
1112 (S18W00) and 1113 (N17E63) each produced isolated low-level
B-class flares. New Region 1114 (S22W41), a single-spot A-type, was
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low through the period (15 - 17 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the period (15 -
17 October) due to weak CME effects from a filament eruption on 11
October.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Oct 080 Predicted 15 Oct-17 Oct 080/080/082 90 Day Mean 14 Oct 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 007/007-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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