Viewing archive of Wednesday, 13 October 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Oct 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1112 (S17E14)
remained stable and quiet. New Region 1113 (N17E76) produced several
B-class x-ray events, the largest a B4 event at 13/1627Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next 3 days (14-16 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron Flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for days 1 and 2 (14-15 October) and quiet to
unsettled with a chance for isolated periods of active conditions on
day 3 (16 October). The increased activity is expected due to the
possible arrival of a CME observed on 11 October.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Oct to 16 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Oct 078 Predicted 14 Oct-16 Oct 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 13 Oct 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct 007/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct 005/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct to 16 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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