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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Oct 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 1112 (S18E54) produced a few moderate level B-class flares during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at predominately very low levels with a slight chance for C-class activity for the next three days (11 - 13 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active levels at high latitudes on days one and two (11 - 12 October). This activity is due to a small, geoeffective coronal hole coupled with glancing blow effects from the 06 October full-halo CME. Day three (13 October) will see a return to mostly quiet conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Oct to 13 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Oct 076
  Predicted   11 Oct-13 Oct  076/078/078
  90 Day Mean        10 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Oct  001/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct  008/008-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct to 13 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%15%05%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%20%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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