Viewing archive of Saturday, 9 October 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Oct 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. New Region 1112
(S18E65) was numbered during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
predominately very low levels with a slight chance for C-class
activity for the next three days (10 - 12 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for day one (10 October). By day two (11
October), activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled
levels, with isolated active periods at high latitudes. The increase
in activity is due to a small, geoeffective coronal hole high speed
stream coupled with glancing blow effects from the 06 October
full-halo CME. Day three (12 October) will see a return to mostly
quiet conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Oct 076 Predicted 10 Oct-12 Oct 078/078/080 90 Day Mean 09 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct 005/005-010/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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