Viewing archive of Saturday, 18 September 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Sep 18 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 261 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Sep 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Both Region 1106 (S20W21)
and Region 1108 (S28E49) indicated slight growth in areal coverage
during the period, but still retained bi-polar magnetic
configurations.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
predominately very low levels. A chance of C-class activity, with a
slight chance of M-class activity, is possible for the next three
days (19 - 21 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. An isolated unsettled period
was observed at high latitudes at 18/0300Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for days one and two (19 - 20
September). Quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods,
are expected on day three (21 September) due to a large, recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Sep to 21 Sep
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Sep 082 Predicted 19 Sep-21 Sep 082/082/083 90 Day Mean 18 Sep 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Sep 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Sep 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Sep-21 Sep 005/005-005/005-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Sep to 21 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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