Viewing archive of Monday, 23 August 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Aug 23 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. No flares were observed during the period and no new
regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels for the next three days (24-26 August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (24 August),
at unsettled to active levels with a chance for isolated minor storm
periods on day two (25 August), and at quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (26 August). The increase in activity is due to a
recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Aug to 26 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Aug 075 Predicted 24 Aug-26 Aug 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 23 Aug 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug 000/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug 010/010-015/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug to 26 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 05% |
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