Viewing archive of Wednesday, 30 June 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jun 30 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity was very low during the last 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low throughout the forecast period (01-03 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active with an isolated
minor storm at high latitudes observed from 00-03Z. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with isolated active periods for day
1 (01 July) due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
Quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods are expected
for days 2 and 3 (02-03 July) as the effects from the coronal hole
high speed stream subside.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jul to 03 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jun 074 Predicted 01 Jul-03 Jul 074/074/074 90 Day Mean 30 Jun 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun 008/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jun 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul 012/015-010/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul to 03 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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