Viewing archive of Wednesday, 16 June 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jun 16 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next 3 days (17-19 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active at mid latitudes. Storm conditions occurred at high latitude stations. Elevated solar wind speeds near 550 km/s were observed throughout the day.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled to active on day 1 (17 June) due to coronal hole effects. Conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled with the chance for an isolated active period on day 2 (18 June). Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day 3 (19 June).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jun to 19 Jun
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Jun 072
  Predicted   17 Jun-19 Jun  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        16 Jun 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jun  009/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Jun  015/016
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun  010/012-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jun to 19 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%30%20%
Minor storm20%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active60%40%30%
Minor storm30%20%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

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