Viewing archive of Friday, 4 June 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jun 04 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jun 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. Region 1076 (S19W49) has decayed in white light areal coverage but remains a beta magnetic classification. No flares were observed. However, a full-halo CME was observed on LASCO C2 imagery at 04/1202Z. The CME appears to be a backsided event and is not expected to become geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class events for the next three days (05-07 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels with an isolated minor storm period from 0000Z-0300Z for the past 24 hours. Solar wind data from the ACE spacecraft indicate the continuation of a high speed solar wind stream with wind speeds around 550 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled levels with a chance for an isolated active period for the first day (05 June) due to persistence and the forecasted arrival of the CME observed on 31 May. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on the second day (06 June). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected with a chance for active periods on the third day (07 June) due to a coronal hole high-speed stream moving into geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jun to 07 Jun
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Jun 072
  Predicted   05 Jun-07 Jun  072/072/072
  90 Day Mean        04 Jun 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jun  013/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Jun  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun  010/010-005/005-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jun to 07 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%15%30%
Minor storm10%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%20%35%
Minor storm15%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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