Viewing archive of Monday, 31 May 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 May 31 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 151 Issued at 2200Z on 31 May 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. New Region 1076 (S19E07) was numbered today and is a beta magnetic classification. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels with one reporting period at 30/2100Z of minor storm conditions. Observations from the ACE spacecraft indicate the continued influence from the coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speeds have increased through the period from 500 km/s to above 600 km/s with IMF Bz fluctuations of +/- 6 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly unsettled with isolated active conditions for the next three days (01-03 June) due to the coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jun to 03 Jun
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 May 072
  Predicted   01 Jun-03 Jun  072/072/072
  90 Day Mean        31 May 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 May  014/019
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 May  016/022
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Jun-03 Jun  010/010-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jun to 03 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%20%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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