Viewing archive of Wednesday, 7 April 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Apr 07 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 097 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Apr 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Regions 1060
(N24E14) and 1061 (N13W39) remain stable and show slight decay. No
flares were observed during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for an isolated C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm
conditions, with periods of major storming at some high latitude
stations. This activity is a continuation of the CME-driven
conditions from 05 April. The ACE spacecraft currently indicates
the presence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream. Solar
wind speed is averaging 625 km/s with sustained periods of southward
IMF Bz. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached very high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with isolated active periods for day one
(08 April) due to coronal hole effects. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected for day two (09 April). Predominately quiet
conditions are expected for day three (10 April).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Apr to 10 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Apr 076 Predicted 08 Apr-10 Apr 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 07 Apr 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr 022/046 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Apr 015/028 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr 012/015-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr to 10 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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