Viewing archive of Saturday, 13 February 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Feb 13 2226 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
::::::::::CORRECTED COPY:::::::::: SDF Number 044 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was low. Regions 1045 (N24W69) and 1046
(N23W11) were stable during the period producing only low level
C-class events. Both regions maintained Beta-Gamma magnetic
classifications. New Region 1048 (N23E90) was numbered during the
period after producing two C-class flares, the largest a C9.6 event
at 13/1239Z, observed on SXI from around the east limb. No spots
have been reported yet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate with a chance for high activity on days 1-3 (14-16
February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with a single period of
unsettled conditions from 13/15-18Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for day 1 (14 February). Unsettled to active
conditions with a chance for isolated minor storming is expected on
day 2 (15 February) with an increased chance for minor storming on
day 3 (16 February). Activity is associated with the midday, day 2
arrival of the 13 February CME, and a recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Feb to 16 Feb
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Feb 094 Predicted 14 Feb-16 Feb 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 13 Feb 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 005/005-012/012-018/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb to 16 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 40% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 30% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 15% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 45% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 35% | 40% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 15% |
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