Viewing archive of Thursday, 11 February 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Feb 11 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 042 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1045 (N22W52) is
beginning to show signs of decay. Region 1046 (N23E15) intensified
during the period, producing a C1.1/sf flare at 11/1941Z, the
largest event of the period. A well defined, recurrent, southern
extension coronal hole is nearing 20E.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
However, there is a chance for an isolated M-class event during the
period (12-14 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with a single period of
unsettled conditions observed between 06-09Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled on day 1 (12 February). A decrease to quiet
with a slight chance for unsettled conditions on days 2 and 3 (13-14
February) is expected.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Feb 094 Predicted 12 Feb-14 Feb 094/095/095 90 Day Mean 11 Feb 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb 001/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb 010/010-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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