Viewing archive of Tuesday, 19 January 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jan 19 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 019 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. The new region rotating on to the east limb (new Region 1041, near S27) produced an M2.3 flare at 19/1341Z and an M1.7 flare at 19/2035Z, as well as three C-flares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Occasional C-class flares are expected. Isolated M-class flares are likely.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated active levels at high latitudes, on day one (20 January) due to a coronal hole high-speed stream. Quiet levels are expected to return on days two and three (21-22 January).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
Class M60%60%60%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Jan 084
  Predicted   20 Jan-22 Jan  084/084/084
  90 Day Mean        19 Jan 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Jan  002/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan  007/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%05%05%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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