Viewing archive of Saturday, 16 January 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jan 16 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 016 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. Region 1040 (N29W57) has decayed, both in areal coverage and spot number, but retained its beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low to low levels. B-class flares and isolated C-class flares are expected. There is also a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet levels for day one (17 January). On day two (18 January), quiet to unsettled levels are expected due the arrival of a coronal hole high-speed stream. On day three (19 January), quiet levels are expected to return as the effects subside.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Jan 084
  Predicted   17 Jan-19 Jan  084/082/082
  90 Day Mean        16 Jan 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Jan  002/003
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan  005/005-007/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%10%05%
Minor storm01%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%20%05%
Minor storm01%10%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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