Viewing archive of Monday, 28 September 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Sep 28 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Sep 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1027 (N23W47)
indicated a slight increase in area and spot number and maintains a
bipolar magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for a C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated minor storm
period observed at middle latitudes between 28/0600 - 0900Z. An
extended period of southward IMF Bz (-5 to -6 nT) was observed
between 28/0400Z - 0800Z that contributed to the minor storm.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for days one and two (29-30 September). Quiet
to unsettled levels are expected on day three (01 October) due to a
coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Sep to 01 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Sep 073 Predicted 29 Sep-01 Oct 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 28 Sep 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Sep 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Sep 009/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Sep-01 Oct 005/005-005/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Sep to 01 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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