Viewing archive of Saturday, 21 March 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Mar 21 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 080 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Mar 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
The visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Unsettled conditions
were observed between 21/09-15Z. ACE solar wind observations show a
continued influence from the recurrent coronal hole. Velocities
ranged between 379-455 km/s, and interplanetary Bz ranged from -9 nT
and +11 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (22-24
March).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Mar to 24 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Mar 070 Predicted 22 Mar-24 Mar 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 21 Mar 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Mar 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Mar 006/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Mar to 24 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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