Viewing archive of Friday, 13 March 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Mar 13 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 072 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected.
The visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at predominately unsettled to active
levels. An isolated minor storm period was observed at 13/0300Z.
This activity was in response to a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream. Solar wind velocity at ACE increased to 550 km/s.
Interplanetary Bz fluctuated between +15 to -11 nt.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be predominately unsettled on day one (14 March).
Predominately quiet conditions are expected on days two and three
(15 - 16 March).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Mar to 16 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Mar 068 Predicted 14 Mar-16 Mar 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 13 Mar 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar 010/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar to 16 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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