Viewing archive of Saturday, 11 October 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Oct 11 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was very low. A new-cycle sunspot was
numbered today as Region 1005 (N26E42).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to severe storm conditions,
Activity was due to a favorably positioned coronal hole high speed
stream. Solar wind speeds increased from around 330 to 530 km/s
during the period. The Bz was anywhere from -13 nT to -14 nT while
the Bt reached fluctuations of +14 nT to +15 nT for the period
between 11/0600Z - 11/1800Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active conditions with isolated minor
storm levels at high latitudes for 12 October. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected for 13 October. Predominately quiet levels
are expected to return for 14 October as the coronal hole effects
subside.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Oct 071 Predicted 12 Oct-14 Oct 071/072/072 90 Day Mean 11 Oct 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct 020/035 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct 015/020-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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