Viewing archive of Monday, 18 August 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Aug 18 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Aug 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed in
the past 24 hours and the solar disk continues to be spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was initially quiet to unsettled until about
0600Z when conditions became disturbed due to the onset of a high
speed stream from a coronal hole. Activity levels were at active to
minor storm levels for the remainder of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled to active on day one (19 August),
due to the persistent effects from the high speed stream. Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected on day two (20 August), and quiet
levels on day three (21 August).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Aug to 21 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Aug 066 Predicted 19 Aug-21 Aug 066/066/066 90 Day Mean 18 Aug 066
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Aug 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Aug 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug 012/015-007/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Aug to 21 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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