Viewing archive of Saturday, 14 June 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Jun 14 2205 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 998
(S10W01) decayed to spotless plage.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. A
co-rotating interaction region was observed at the ACE spacecraft
around 14/1200Z. Wind speeds began climbing soon thereafter to end
the period at just below 550 km/s, with the interplanetary magnetic
field Bz component ranging between +13 and -17 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the forecast period
(15 to 17 June). There is a chance for active conditions and a
slight chance for isolated minor storm periods all three days due to
a coronal hole high speed stream rotating into a geoeffective
position.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jun to 17 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jun 067 Predicted 15 Jun-17 Jun 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 14 Jun 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun 001/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jun 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun 008/008-010/010-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun to 17 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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