Viewing archive of Sunday, 18 May 2008

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 May 18 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 18 May 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 994 (S12W22) increased in complexity briefly becoming a Cso Beta magnetic class.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain very low. There is a slight chance of a C-class flare, particularly from Region 994.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from unsettled to active levels over the next three days, with a chance for minor storm levels at high latitudes as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 19 May to 21 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 May 072
  Predicted   19 May-21 May  072/072/072
  90 Day Mean        18 May 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 May  001/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 May  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 May-21 May  010/012-015/030-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 May to 21 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%25%20%
Minor storm10%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%09%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%45%30%
Minor storm15%25%15%
Major-severe storm01%10%05%

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