Viewing archive of Tuesday, 22 April 2008

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Apr 22 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 113 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during the past 24 hours. New Region 992 (N13W01) emerged today as a small, C-type sunspot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days (23-25 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet from the beginning of the period through about 1500Z. Since then activity has been unsettled. Real-time solar wind data from ACE indicate a possible solar sector boundary from 'away' orientation (positive) to 'towards' orientation (negative) at about 1410Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled with a chance for isolated active periods for the first and second days (23-24 April). The elevated activity is expected in response to a coronal hole which should be in a favorable position on those days. Activity is expected to decline to quiet to unsettled for the third day (25 April).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Apr 071
  Predicted   23 Apr-25 Apr  075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        22 Apr 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Apr  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr  012/015-012/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%15%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%15%
Minor storm15%15%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

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