Viewing archive of Saturday, 19 April 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Apr 19 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 110 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Apr 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. New Region 991 (S09E29) was numbered today and has a Bxo-beta configuration spot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain very low. There is a slight chance of an isolated C-class event from Region 991.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on day one (20 April). A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream begins to become geoeffective on day two (21 April) with unsettled conditions expected. Unsettled to active levels, with a chance for minor to major storms at high latitudes, are anticipated by day three (22 April).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Apr to 22 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Apr 071
  Predicted   20 Apr-22 Apr  075/075/080
  90 Day Mean        19 Apr 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Apr  005/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Apr  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Apr-22 Apr  005/005-008/012-015/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Apr to 22 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%20%25%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%40%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%10%

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