Viewing archive of Thursday, 27 March 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Mar 27 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 087 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Mar 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region's 987 (S08W05),
988 (S08E19), and 989 (S12E49) are all beta type groups and have not
produced any significant events during the last 24 hour period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance for a C-class flare from any of the
three numbered regions on the disk, and a very slight chance for an
M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm conditions due
to the continued influence of the recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream. Solar wind speeds remain in excess of 650 km/s. The
greater than 2MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately unsettled with isolated periods of
active conditions for 28-29 March. Conditions are expected to
decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on 30 March.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Mar to 30 Mar
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Mar 085 Predicted 28 Mar-30 Mar 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 27 Mar 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Mar 016/027 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Mar 018/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar 015/015-010/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Mar to 30 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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