Viewing archive of Wednesday, 26 March 2008

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Mar 26 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 086 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Mar 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 987 (S08E08) and 988 (S08E33) have remained fairly stable and both retain their beta magnetic configuration. Region 989 (S10E62) has also been stable, however, it remains too close to the limb for determining the magnetic classification.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Region 987, 988, and 989 are capable of producing C-class flares. An M-class event is possible from Region 989.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm conditions due to the influence of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind observations at the ACE spacecraft increased from an average around 370 km/s to a maximum of 602 at 26/1429Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels with isolated minor storm conditions for 27 March due to the coronal hole high speed stream. Isolated periods of major storm conditions are possible at high latitudes. Unsettled to isolated active conditions are expected for 28-29 March.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Mar to 29 Mar
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Mar 082
  Predicted   27 Mar-29 Mar  090/095/095
  90 Day Mean        26 Mar 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Mar  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Mar  020/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Mar-29 Mar  020/025-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Mar to 29 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%15%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%30%20%
Minor storm20%15%10%
Major-severe storm15%10%05%

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