Viewing archive of Tuesday, 25 March 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Mar 25 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 085 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. New Region 989 (S10E77)
was numbered today and produced a M1/1f at 25/1856Z with an
associated 290 sfu Tenflare at 25/1851Z and a Type II radio sweep,
with a speed of 1278 km/s. LASCO imagery also observed a CME off
the East limb associated with this event which was first observed in
C2 at 25/1941Z. This region is too close to the limb to determine
its magnetic configuration. Region 987 (S08E23) and 988 (S09E47)
both remain beta groups and have grown in white light area coverage
and sunspot count.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 989 is capable of producing an isolated M-class
event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with isolated minor
storm conditions for 26-27 March due to a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream. Isolated major storm conditions are possible at
high latitudes during this period. Conditions should be unsettled
with isolated active levels for 28 March.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Mar to 28 Mar
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Mar 089 Predicted 26 Mar-28 Mar 090/095/095 90 Day Mean 25 Mar 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Mar 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar 020/020-020/025-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar to 28 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
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