Viewing archive of Tuesday, 25 March 2008

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Mar 25 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 085 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. New Region 989 (S10E77) was numbered today and produced a M1/1f at 25/1856Z with an associated 290 sfu Tenflare at 25/1851Z and a Type II radio sweep, with a speed of 1278 km/s. LASCO imagery also observed a CME off the East limb associated with this event which was first observed in C2 at 25/1941Z. This region is too close to the limb to determine its magnetic configuration. Region 987 (S08E23) and 988 (S09E47) both remain beta groups and have grown in white light area coverage and sunspot count.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 989 is capable of producing an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels with isolated minor storm conditions for 26-27 March due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Isolated major storm conditions are possible at high latitudes during this period. Conditions should be unsettled with isolated active levels for 28 March.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Mar to 28 Mar
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Mar 089
  Predicted   26 Mar-28 Mar  090/095/095
  90 Day Mean        25 Mar 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar  002/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Mar  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar  020/020-020/025-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar to 28 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm15%15%10%

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