Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 March 2008

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Mar 15 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 075 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. New region 986 (S04W41) was numbered today. It was initially a Bxo Beta magnetic class, but has since deteriorated to an Alpha magnetic class.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on days one and two (16-17 March) due to the continued influence of a coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (18 March) as the effects of the high speed stream subside.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Mar 070
  Predicted   16 Mar-18 Mar  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        15 Mar 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar  012/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Mar  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar  010/010-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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