Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 March 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Mar 15 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 075 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was very low. New region 986 (S04W41)
was numbered today. It was initially a Bxo Beta magnetic class, but
has since deteriorated to an Alpha magnetic class.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high
levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on days one and two (16-17 March) due
to the continued influence of a coronal hole high speed stream.
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (18 March)
as the effects of the high speed stream subside.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Mar 070 Predicted 16 Mar-18 Mar 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 15 Mar 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar 012/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar 010/010-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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