Viewing archive of Thursday, 28 February 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Feb 28 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 059 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active with minor storm
conditions at high latitudes. Real-time solar wind observations are
consistent with signatures of a coronal hole high-speed stream. The
velocity, magnetic field and temperature all showed an increase at
about 28/1330Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with periods of active conditions
for 29 February, and at unsettled levels for 01 March due to the
influence of the high speed stream. Activity is expected to be
predominately quiet on 02 March as the stream subsides somewhat.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Feb to 02 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Feb 070 Predicted 29 Feb-02 Mar 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 28 Feb 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb 006/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Feb-02 Mar 012/012-010/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Feb to 02 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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