Viewing archive of Monday, 25 February 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Feb 25 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 056 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity was very low. New Region 983 (S01W39),
currently classified as an Axx alpha group, was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one (26 February). Quiet to unsettled
levels are expected on day two (27 February). Unsettled to active
levels are expected on day three (28 February) with isolated minor
storm conditions at high latitudes as a recurrent coronal hole
becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Feb to 28 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Feb 071 Predicted 26 Feb-28 Feb 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 25 Feb 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb 005/005-007/008-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb to 28 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
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