Viewing archive of Saturday, 16 February 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Feb 16 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 047 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. The visible
solar disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels, due to the
continued influence of a coronal hole high speed stream. Wind speed
at the ACE spacecraft began the period at approximately 650 km/s, by
the end of the summary period it had to declined to around 550 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, as the coronal hole
high speed stream rotates out of a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Feb 070 Predicted 17 Feb-19 Feb 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 16 Feb 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb 008/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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