Viewing archive of Thursday, 31 January 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Jan 31 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 031 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind data from ACE
show a marked increase in velocity, density, magnetic field and
temperature. These observations are consistent with the onset of a
coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with isolated active conditions due
to the influence of a recurrent coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jan 072 Predicted 01 Feb-03 Feb 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 31 Jan 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb 008/012-008/010-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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