Viewing archive of Monday, 14 January 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Jan 14 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 014 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels under the influence of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed at ACE reached 750 km/s during the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at unsettled to active levels with isolated storm periods at high latitudes on Days 1 and 2 (15-16 Jan). The high speed stream is expected to depart on Day 3 (17 Jan) and activity levels should diminish to quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Jan 076
  Predicted   15 Jan-17 Jan  075/070/070
  90 Day Mean        14 Jan 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan  009/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Jan  014/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan  014/015-012/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%20%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%15%
Minor storm20%20%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

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