Viewing archive of Monday, 17 December 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Dec 17 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 351 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Dec 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 978 (S10W78) produced
today's only C-class event, a C2 at 0716Z. The region appears to be
decaying as it approaches west limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low, although there continues to be a chance for an isolated C-class
event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The
field was initially quiet but became disturbed after a sudden
impulse was observed at 0300Z. The sudden impulse was preceded by a
weak shock in the solar wind observed at ACE at 0204Z. The shock was
followed by an increase in velocity and magnetic field at ACE
consistent with a corotating interaction region which was then
followed by a high speed stream. Active to minor storm conditions
prevailed from 0600-1200Z, followed by mostly active conditions. As
of forecast issue time the solar wind velocity remains elevated with
values around 550-600 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next three days (18-20
December), due to continued influence of the high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Dec to 20 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Dec 080 Predicted 18 Dec-20 Dec 075/070/070 90 Day Mean 17 Dec 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Dec 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Dec 022/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec 015/015-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Dec to 20 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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