Viewing archive of Thursday, 13 December 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Dec 13 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Dec 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 978 (S08W25) produced a C4.5/1f event at 13/1003Z. This region has exhibited growth in white light area coverage and developed a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Region 978 remains capable of producing C-class flares with a slight chance for an isolated low level M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for 14-15 December. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for 16 December.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Dec to 16 Dec
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Dec 094
  Predicted   14 Dec-16 Dec  095/095/095
  90 Day Mean        13 Dec 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Dec  007/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Dec  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec  005/005-005/005-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Dec to 16 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%20%
Minor storm05%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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