Viewing archive of Tuesday, 20 November 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Nov 20 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. The visible
solar disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to major storm levels. An
isolated period of major storm conditions was observed from 20/1200
- 1500Z. Continued influence from a co-rotating interaction region
and coronal hole high speed stream was seen by the ACE spacecraft
through the summary interval. Solar wind speed ranged from
approximately 440 km/s to a maximum of 510 km/s with Bz varying from
+10nT to -16nT during the summary period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. On day one and two (21
and 22 November), activity should remain at unsettled to active
levels. Isolated minor storm periods at middle latitudes and major
storm levels at high latitudes are possible due to the continued
effects from the coronal hole high speed stream. Activity levels
should decrease to quiet to unsettled conditions on 23 November.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Nov 070 Predicted 21 Nov-23 Nov 070/070/069 90 Day Mean 20 Nov 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov 025/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov 018/020-015/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
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