Viewing archive of Saturday, 17 November 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Nov 17 2246 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 974 (N13W21) was
classiefied as a Dao, Beta-Gamma magnetic type at 0300Z. Subsequent
reports have identified it as a spotless plage region.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low. There is a slight chance of an isolated C-Class flare
from region 974.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain predominantly quiet during 18-19 Nov, increasing
to unsettled to occasionally active by 20 Nov as a recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Nov to 20 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Nov 070 Predicted 18 Nov-20 Nov 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 17 Nov 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov 005/005-005/005-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov to 20 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
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