Viewing archive of Friday, 16 November 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Nov 16 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 974 was designated
in position N12W04 as spot class BXO, magnetic class beta. A slow
moving CME was observed on the southwest limb at approximately
16/1100Z. This CME appears to have originated on the backside of
the Sun and is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominately quiet with one unsettled
period. Solar wind speed remains elevated near 500 km/s due to a
geoeffective recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the forecast period, November 17 - 19.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Nov to 19 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Nov 071 Predicted 17 Nov-19 Nov 069/069/069 90 Day Mean 16 Nov 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov to 19 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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