Viewing archive of Friday, 16 November 2007

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Nov 16 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 974 was designated in position N12W04 as spot class BXO, magnetic class beta. A slow moving CME was observed on the southwest limb at approximately 16/1100Z. This CME appears to have originated on the backside of the Sun and is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominately quiet with one unsettled period. Solar wind speed remains elevated near 500 km/s due to a geoeffective recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the forecast period, November 17 - 19.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Nov to 19 Nov
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Nov 071
  Predicted   17 Nov-19 Nov  069/069/069
  90 Day Mean        16 Nov 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov  005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Nov  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov to 19 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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