Viewing archive of Monday, 22 October 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Oct 22 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. The visible
solar disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels on 23 October. Activity is
anticipated to increase to unsettled to active levels late on 24
October and continue through the forecast period. Minor storm
periods at middle latitudes and major storm levels at high latitudes
are possible on 24 and 25 October due to a coronal hole high speed
stream.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Oct to 25 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Oct 067 Predicted 23 Oct-25 Oct 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 22 Oct 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct 005/008-010/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct to 25 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 15% |
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