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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Oct 21 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours, and the visible disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Real-time solar wind observations from ACE show solar wind velocity gradually declined during the past 24 hours to approximately 455 km/s at forecast issue time. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 22 October. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 23 October. Expect conditions to range from quiet to active levels on 24 October, with a chance for minor storm periods, as a recurrent coronal hole becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Oct to 24 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Oct 067
  Predicted   22 Oct-24 Oct  067/067/067
  90 Day Mean        21 Oct 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct  008/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Oct  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct  005/005-005/008-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct to 24 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%25%
Minor storm05%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%30%
Minor storm05%05%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%10%

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