Viewing archive of Tuesday, 25 September 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Sep 25 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. The visible solar disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled 26 - 27 September. On 28 September conditions are forecast to be unsettled to active as another coronal hole high speed stream rotates into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Sep to 28 Sep
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Sep 066
  Predicted   26 Sep-28 Sep  067/067/067
  90 Day Mean        25 Sep 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep  007/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Sep  006/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep  004/005-006/008-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep to 28 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%40%
Minor storm05%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%45%
Minor storm10%10%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%10%

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