Viewing archive of Saturday, 22 September 2007

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Sep 22 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. There were no spots observed on the solar disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active on 23 September, with isolated minor storm conditions at high latitudes. The elevated activity is due to the continued influence of a recurrent coronal hole. Quiet to unsettled conditions should return for 24-25 September as the high speed solar wind stream subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Sep 067
  Predicted   23 Sep-25 Sep  067/067/067
  90 Day Mean        22 Sep 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep  007/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Sep  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep  015/015-010/015-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%20%10%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%25%15%
Minor storm15%15%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

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