Viewing archive of Saturday, 22 September 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Sep 22 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was very low. There were no spots
observed on the solar disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active on 23 September, with isolated
minor storm conditions at high latitudes. The elevated activity is
due to the continued influence of a recurrent coronal hole. Quiet to
unsettled conditions should return for 24-25 September as the high
speed solar wind stream subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Sep 067 Predicted 23 Sep-25 Sep 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 22 Sep 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep 007/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep 015/015-010/015-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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