Viewing archive of Friday, 10 August 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Aug 10 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 966 (S06W20) produced no significant flares during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active. A recurrent coronal hole became geoeffective at approximately 10/1400Z. The solar wind speed at ACE rose from 225 km/s and reached 560 km/s by forecast time. The 2 MeV electron flux measured at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active. Minor storms are possible at high latitudes. Unsettled to active conditions are expected to end during the latter half of 11 August as the recurrent coronal hole rotates away from a geoeffective position. Quiet conditions are anticipated on 12 and 13 August.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Aug to 13 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Aug 068
  Predicted   11 Aug-13 Aug  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        10 Aug 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug  002/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Aug  012/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug  010/015-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug to 13 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%10%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%15%10%
Minor storm20%05%05%
Major-severe storm10%01%01%

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