Viewing archive of Thursday, 14 June 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jun 14 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 960 has rotated
around the west limb. The visible solar disk is now spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active. There was a
single period of minor storming at mid latitudes as the solar wind
speed increased to about 550 km/s due to a recurrent coronal hole
rotating into geoeffective position.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm
periods on 15 June due to the coronal hole high speed stream.
Expect quiet to unsettled conditions on 16 - 17 June.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jun to 17 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jun 069 Predicted 15 Jun-17 Jun 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 14 Jun 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jun 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun 010/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun to 17 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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