Viewing archive of Tuesday, 5 June 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jun 05 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 156 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jun 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 960 (S07E24) produced two C-flares. The largest of which was a C6.6/1f flare at 05/1613 UTC. The region continues to be in decay, however it maintains a beta gamma delta magnetic classification.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 960 is still capable of producing M-flares with a slight chance for an X-flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet. Based on the potential for significant flare activity from Region 960, there is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jun to 08 Jun
Class M60%60%50%
Class X15%15%10%
Proton10%10%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Jun 081
  Predicted   06 Jun-08 Jun  085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        05 Jun 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jun  008/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Jun  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jun to 08 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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