Viewing archive of Monday, 4 June 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jun 04 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jun 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity was at high levels. Region 960 (S08E38) produced an M8.9/3b flare at 04/0513 UTC with an associated 130 sfu Tenflare. There is some decay in area of the central and trailing spots of this region, however it remains a complex beta gamma delta magnetic classification.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate to high levels with a chance for an X-flare from Region 960.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period observed at the Boulder magnetometer between 04/1500 UTC and 04/1800 UTC. Solar wind speed at ACE is currently elevated around 500 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Based on the potential for significant flare activity from Region 960, there is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jun to 07 Jun
Class M70%70%70%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Jun 086
  Predicted   05 Jun-07 Jun  085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        04 Jun 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jun  007/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Jun  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun  008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jun to 07 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%15%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

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