Viewing archive of Sunday, 3 June 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jun 03 2206 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity reached high levels today. Region 960
(S09E50) produced three M-class flares; an M2.4 at 03/0159 UTC, an
M7.0 at 03/0212 UTC, and an M4.5 with an associated 330 sfu Tenflare
at 03/0641UTC. Region 960 also produced a C5.3 flare at 03/0928
UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep (speed 522 km/s). This
event is not expected to be geoeffective. Region 960 has been
classified as a beta gamma delta magnetic group with an area of
approximately 540 millionths.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at moderate to high levels with a chance for an X-class flare from
Region 960.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed at ACE
increased from approximately 370 km/s to 500 km/s from 03/1200 UTC
until 03/2100 UTC. Based on the potential for significant flare
activity from Region 960, there is a slight chance for a greater
than 10 MeV proton event. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 04 June. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on 05 and 06 June.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jun to 06 Jun
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jun 087 Predicted 04 Jun-06 Jun 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 03 Jun 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jun 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun 010/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun to 06 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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