Viewing archive of Friday, 1 June 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jun 01 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jun 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. New Region 960 (S06E73) was responsible for two M-class flares during the past 24 hours. An M1 x-ray flare occurred at 01/0651Z and an M2/Sf event occurred at 01/1459Z. A Tenflare of 100 sfu was associated with the M2 event. This region remains too close to the east solar limb to ascertain a complete magnetic analysis. Region 958 (S13E22) developed several sunspots during the period and is now classified a Bxo beta magnetic sunspot group. Region 959 (S12E49) contains two small umbra and was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Region 960 is likely to produce further M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 02 June. Active conditions are expected on 03 and 04 June due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jun to 04 Jun
Class M60%60%60%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%10%10%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Jun 079
  Predicted   02 Jun-04 Jun  085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        01 Jun 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 31 May  002/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Jun  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun  003/005-010/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jun to 04 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%25%25%
Minor storm01%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%30%30%
Minor storm05%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%10%10%

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