Viewing archive of Thursday, 24 May 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 May 24 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 956 (S01W74) has
decayed into a plage region without spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storming.
Extended periods of southward Bz starting on 23 May, combined with
rising solar wind speeds, accounted for the most disturbed periods.
Solar wind speed increased to approximately 650 km/s during the
summary period due to a recurrent coronal hole rotating into a
geoeffective position. The greater then 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from unsettled to major storming over the next
three days. Elevated solar wind speeds due to the geoeffective
coronal hole and transient material from the CME's on 22 and 23 May
should produce storm periods on 25 - 26 May. Expect mostly
unsettled to active conditions on 27 May.
III. Event Probabilities 25 May to 27 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 May 070 Predicted 25 May-27 May 070/070/065 90 Day Mean 24 May 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 May 028/042 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 May 018/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May 020/025-020/025-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May to 27 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
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