Viewing archive of Thursday, 24 May 2007

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 May 24 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 956 (S01W74) has decayed into a plage region without spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storming. Extended periods of southward Bz starting on 23 May, combined with rising solar wind speeds, accounted for the most disturbed periods. Solar wind speed increased to approximately 650 km/s during the summary period due to a recurrent coronal hole rotating into a geoeffective position. The greater then 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from unsettled to major storming over the next three days. Elevated solar wind speeds due to the geoeffective coronal hole and transient material from the CME's on 22 and 23 May should produce storm periods on 25 - 26 May. Expect mostly unsettled to active conditions on 27 May.
III. Event Probabilities 25 May to 27 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 May 070
  Predicted   25 May-27 May  070/070/065
  90 Day Mean        24 May 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 May  028/042
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 May  018/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May  020/025-020/025-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May to 27 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%30%
Minor storm25%25%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%40%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm15%15%10%

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